However, although the importance of conventional factors is well-established, studies have concluded that more than 50% of patients with CVD lack the traditional risk factors. It not only includes the sex, age, untreated systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, waist circumference, smoking, diabetes and other risk factors, but also includes north and south region, urban and rural areas, ASCVD family history. The China-PAR model 9 is designed for Chinese risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Geographical distribution is added to make the assessment more rigorous, but the clinical outcome index is fatal CVD events, so there may be some limitations for predicts non-fatal CVD. 7 Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) 8 mainly applies to Europeans aged 40–65 years old. In addition, some study suggests that FRS models overestimate the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the European population. However, BMI and family history are not considered in the score, which may underestimate the morbidity and mortality of high-risk groups. 4–6 Framingham risk score (FRS) mainly applies to white Americans between the 30 and 62 years old and has become one of the most widely used risk assessment tools. 1–3 Over time, these traditional markers were codified into risk scores for assessing cardiovascular disease (CVD). Keywords: CVD, predictive model, general cohort, QT interval, aortic root diameter, ventricular septal thicknessīetween 19, investigators in Framingham, Massachusetts identified age, hypertension, smoking, and hyperlipidemia as major determinants of coronary heart disease, and coined the term “coronary risk factors”. Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the net benefit with Model 1 was higher than that of Model 2.Ĭonclusion: QT interval from electrocardiography and aortic root diameter and ventricular septal thickness from echocardiography should be included in the CVD risk prediction models. The results of Model 1 indicated that in addition to the traditional risk factors, QT interval (p < 0.001), aortic root diameter (p < 0.001), and ventricular septal thickness (p < 0.001) were predictive factors for CVD. The total incidence of CVD was 1.1%/year, including stroke (n = 342) and coronary heart disease (n = 175). Results: For the observed population (n = 10,349), the median follow-up time was 4.66 years. Framingham-related variables, namely age, sex, smoking, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and diabetes status were used to construct the traditional model (Model 2).
Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: The prediction model was developed using demographic factors, blood biochemical indicators, electrocardiographic (ECG) characteristics, and echocardiography indicators collected at baseline (Model 1).
At the study’s end, we obtained the CVD outcome events for 10,349 participants. In 20, the participants were invited to join the follow-up study for incident cardiovascular events. Participants: A total of 11,956 participants aged ≥ 35 years were recruited between 20, using a multistage, randomly stratified, cluster-sampling scheme. Objective: To develop and validate a new prediction model for the general population based on a large panel of both traditional and novel factors in cardiovascular disease (CVD).ĭesign and Setting: We used a prospective cohort in the Northeast China Rural Cardiovascular Health Study (NCRCHS).
Zhao Li, 1 Yiqing Yang, 1 Liqiang Zheng, 2 Guozhe Sun, 1 Xiaofan Guo, 1 Yingxian Sun 1ġDepartment of Cardiology, The First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, 110001, People’s Republic of China 2Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Library, Department of Health Policy and Hospital Management, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, 110004, People’s Republic of ChinaĬorrespondence: Yiqing Yang Yingxian Sun Tel +86 24 83282688Įmail